Disclaimer: The knowledge offered doesn't represent monetary, funding, buying and selling, or different kinds of recommendation and is solely the author’s opinion.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] rally to $30k on 9 August spurred bullish sentiment within the bigger crypto market. Polkadot [DOT] too witnessed a modest rise of 4% in its worth however couldn’t preserve the rally for lengthy. At press time, the coin was buying and selling at $4.99.
It's evident that Polkadot continues to stay one of the crucial common blockchain ecosystems. At press time, it had a market cap of $6 billion, making it the thirteenth largest cryptocurrency.
Beforehand, DOT’s value rose 9% inside a day of Ripple [XRP] securing a partial victory in its authorized battle with the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) on 13 July.
The U.S. District Court docket of the Southern District of New York dominated in its judgement that the sale of Ripple’s XRP tokens on crypto exchanges and although programmatic gross sales didn't represent funding contracts; therefore, it isn't a safety on this case. However the court docket additionally dominated that the institutional sale of the XRP tokens violated federal securities legal guidelines.
The crypto business has lapped up the judgement immediately, producing a value rally throughout tokens.
Polkadot’s ecosystem continues to develop as extra parachains developments come onboard. By the top of Q1 2023, over 40 parachains had received contemporary public sale slots on Polkadot, according to the Q1 replace. The brand new tasks embody Zeitgeist and Subsocial, amongst others.
These new parachain developments may add upward strain to DOT’s token worth as they drive demand. Notably, a mission staff should win a Polkadot parachain slot public sale to be related to the core community. The parachain slot public sale is settled in DOT tokens, and the mission staff may search DOT from particular person holders by a crowdfunding course of referred to as “crowd loans” to assist safe the slots.
To know the potential impression of those new developments on DOT’s worth, we tapped into ChatGPT to achieve extra nuanced insights and gauge the AI mannequin’s apprehension of Polkadot’s ecosystem.
Asking ChatGPT about Polkadot’s previous, current and future
Beginning off with the fundamentals, we requested ChatGPT to elucidate what Polkadot is and the way its ecosystem works –
Supply: ChatGPT
In abstract, ChatGPT acknowledged that,
“General, Polkadot’s ecosystem is designed to foster innovation and collaboration between totally different blockchains, offering a versatile and scalable platform for builders to construct a variety of decentralized purposes.”
The “decentralized purposes” are also referred to as “parachains.” The Polkadot ecosystem added 21 of those parachains final month, and every mission staff should win a parachain slot public sale to achieve entry to the core system for a specified time period. It's like paying for a lease over a sure agreed period.
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To additional gauge the AI mannequin’s understanding of Polkadot, we requested it how parachain slot public sale works –
Supply: ChatGPT
The “crowd mortgage” construction of sourcing DOT tokens entails “staking” to assist a mission win an public sale. This, merely put, is intriguing. Due to the present U.S. regulatory strain on crypto-staking, something structured in a fashion that entails “staking” may appeal to regulatory scrutiny.
For instance, Coinbase just lately acquired a Wells Discover from the SEC. One of many objects of the potential lawsuit is reportedly its crypto-staking service.
So, we requested ChatGPT what crowd mortgage is and its authorized standing within the U.S. The reason was apt, however the AI mannequin couldn’t affirmatively state whether or not crowd loans are authorized within the U.S.
Supply: ChatGPT
Right here is ChatGPT’s evaluation of the legality of crowd loans within the U.S.
Supply: ChatGPT
At this level, one factor is crystal clear. parachains developments can drive demand for DOT tokens as a result of mission groups want them to win a parachain slot public sale. Based mostly on this, how will the 21 newly added parachains impression DOT’s worth?
This was the AI mannequin’s reply –
Supply: ChatGPT
We have to put a determine on the above potential upward strain on DOT’s worth as a result of added parachains. We pulled historic value knowledge on DOT to assist make future value predictions.
Among the outcomes issued by ChatGPT have been inaccurate, with a large deviation from value knowledge collated from TradingView.
For instance, ChatGPT acknowledged that DOT hit a excessive of $52 in December 2021. Quite the opposite, TradingView’s knowledge confirmed it at a excessive of $39 on 1 December, 2021.
Supply: ChatGPT
The AI mannequin is restricted from making value predictions, so we unshackled it by jailbreak strategies to get modest value prediction values for DOT. We needed to ask the AI mannequin to interrupt down DOT’s historic value knowledge in 2021 to make use of it for the predictions.
Surprisingly, the outcomes have been totally different from the earlier output.
Supply: ChatGPT
The outcomes famous little deviation from TradingView’s knowledge, in comparison with the earlier output. The jailbreak model is understood to offer outright false info, however this explicit occasion was barely totally different.
Alternatively, the traditional model resorted to attaching a direct hyperlink from CoinMarketCap to assist monitor historic value knowledge.
Supply: ChatGPT
Nonetheless, it's price noting that the AI mannequin tracks totally different websites to collate knowledge on cryptocurrency costs. These websites generally have totally different real-time value values for crypto-assets and will clarify the worth deviation witnessed within the preliminary and second outputs.
Subsequent, we nudged ChatGPT to foretell DOT’s value by the top of 2023 and 2024 based mostly on the above historic value knowledge.
Though the traditional model put forth its typical disclaimer, the jailbreak model predicted DOT’s value to succeed in $80-$120 by the top of 2023.
Supply: ChatGPT
We stretched ChatGPT to extrapolate the identical knowledge and provides a modest common worth of DOT by the top of 2024. The AI mannequin set DOT’s value at $100-$150 by the top of 2024.
Supply: ChatGPT
Not everybody has the persistence to attend for long-term prospects. So, what do DOT’s brief and mid-term prospects appear to be? The every day chart may supply some clues.
DOT’s every day value charts
Supply: DOT/USD, TradingView
At press time, DOT was buying and selling at $4.99, a modest fall from $5.01 during the last seven days.
Each its Relative Power Index (RSI) and Cash Stream Index (MFI) rested a lot above the impartial 50-mark. Its On Stability Quantity (OBV), however, mirrored a drastic downtick.
In conclusion, DOT’s short-term prospects appear extra bullish than bearish. Nonetheless, we should hold an in depth watch on rising developments within the business which will impression its efficiency.
Conclusion
As an AI device, ChatGPT is able to understanding advanced technical info. It has an apt understanding of the Polkadot ecosystem and the way the event of its parachains impacts DOT’s value motion.
Based mostly on latest developments and total market sentiment, ChatGPT forecasted that DOT’s value in 2023 and 2024 may hit $80-$150, respectively.
